I was perplexed when I first heard the Academy was extending the Best Picture category to ten nominees. [ 1* ] Accurate predictions? Sorry, all bets are off. Like global warming and American Idol auditions, I don’t think anyone knows for sure what’s going to happen. However, I do have a few opinions...
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Penelope Cruz
Vera Farmiga
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Anna Kendrick
Mo’Nique
Notes: Mo’Nique took home the Golden Globe (for Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire) and I think she’ll do so again here for her raw, edgy performance. I do like both Farmiga and Kendrick in Up in the Air and that film might be recognized in this category. Frankly, there are no unworthy nominees.
This critic's pick: Mo’Nique
Probable winner: Mo’Nique
Overlooked: Paula Patton and Mariah Carey (yeah, that Mariah Carey) gave superb performances in Precious
Winner: Mo’Nique
Actor in Supporting Role:
Matt Damon
Woody Harrelson
Christopher Plummer
Stanley Tucci
Christoph Waltz
Notes: A really tough field this year. Plummer is excellent as an ailing Tolstoy in The Last Station, and I like Tucci as a seriously warped killer in The Lovely Bones. However, for my money, Christoph Waltz is brilliantly psychotic as a Nazi colonel in Inglorious Basterds. His nerve-jangling performance in the first ten minutes of that film alone is priceless.
This critic's pick: Christoph Waltz
Probable winner: Christoph Waltz
Overlooked: Zach Galifianakis plays the peculiar, mildly insane, impending brother-in-law in The Hangover; John Krasinski as the scene-stealing son-in-law in It’s Complicated
Winner: Christoph Waltz
Actress in a Leading Role:
Sandra Bullock
Helen Mirren
Carey Mulligan
Gabourney Sidibe
Meryl Streep
Notes: I vote for a five-way winning tie. However, barring that option, I suspect that older Academy voters are looking for a Julila Roberts-replacement as America’s new darling. Sandra Bullock is worthy of the title, especially for her sterling performance in The Blind Side. I also love Mulligan as a naïve London schoolgirl, circa 1960, in An Education. However, newcomer Gabouirey Sidibe gives a jaw-dropping performance as an abused teenager in Precious. She is outstanding.
This critic's pick: Gabourey Sidibe
Probable winner: Sandra Bullock (and that's okay too)
Overlooked: Zoe Saldana (in Avatar) because there really is somebody behind this newfangled motion capture technology, living inside a 10-foot tall blue Na’vi princess. I also think Saoirse Raonan does a marvelous job in The Lovely Bones.
Winner: Sandra Bullock
Actor in a Leading Role:
Jeff Bridges
George Clooney
Colin Firth
Morgan Freeman
Jeremy Renner
Notes: With apologies to everyone in this field (and Freeman was terrific in Invictus,) my decision was inevitable two minutes into Crazy Heart. And Jeff Bridges has never won. What's up with that? And Clooney should have won an ALR for Michael Clayton in ’07, damn it.
This critic's pick: Jeff Bridges
Probable winner: Jeff Bridges
Overlooked: I really liked Jason Segal’s performance in I Love You, Man
Winner: Jeff Bridges
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow (for The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (for Avatar)
Lee Daniels (for Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire)
Jason Reitman (for Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (for Inglorious Basterds)
Notes: Anyone who’s read my Avatar review knows how I feel. However, in the name of PC and fair play, if Kathryn Bigelow wins, I won’t be disappointed. The Hurt Locker was exceptional, and I think may be recognized here. (Did you know a female has never won a Best Director statue? What's up with that? A black president, a woman best director... who says we're a stodgy country??) My dark horse favorite is Lee Daniels for Precious.
This critic's pick: James Cameron
Probable winner: Kathryn Bigelow
Overlooked: Marc Webb for (500) Days of Summer. Anybody who puts a bluebird of happiness in a film about lost love deserves at least a nomination. With Michael Jackson's This Is It, Kenny Ortega orchestrated one of the best concert films ever, and made me take a second look at Michael Jackson. I have new respect.
Winner: Kathryn Bigelow (for The Hurt Locker)
Best Picture:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Notes: Unlike my '08 (and '07) disappointment with a couple of the Academy's nominations, this year's selection is all top-notch (although Up has a lock in the Best Animated Feature category and I'm not sure voters are ready to include pure CG flicks in this particular category... so why's it even here?) My two favorite nominees are Precious and Avatar. And thus (alas) time for the obligatory philosophic ramble. Hollywood does a remarkable job at two things; 1) mirroring and sometimes shaking up our social consciousness and, 2) dramatically blowing things up. Precious is a powerful, wrenching peek at hell-on-earth; an intense, mesmerizing drama that should be seen. It is social consciousness on steroids.
If Avatar had simply been a marvelous rendered “blowing things up” film, I might have decided differently, but James Cameron’s sci-fi epic is not only a stunning visual masterpiece, I think it's a socially astute poke at this country's self-indulgences. Ten year olds won’t only be enthralled, they’ll hopefully grow up realizing that we shouldn’t just take things that don’t belong to us. Maybe one of them will eventually become President.
Not to mention that Hollywood’s entire purpose of plumping up the Best Picture category this year is to improve the chances of a studio film (not an indie dark horse) taking home the gold. I suspected Hollywood knows what it’s doing and the $2.5 billion grossing (worldwide) Avatar is as close to mainstream manna as they’ve seen since, well, Titanic.
This critic's pick: Avatar
Probable winner: Avatar
Overlooked: (500) Days of Summer is one of the best romantic fables of the decade.
Winner: The Hurt Locker
P.S. – The Best Animated Feature Film is Up. Without a doubt. (And a shame for the exceptional, trippy Coraline, which probably would have scored a win most other years.)
Winner: Up
Epilog: Here’s my suggestion for Oscar's future. Instead of simply bumping up the Best Picture nominations, let’s take a page from the Golden Globes (oh, c’mon, you know we still like you better) and nominate the five Best Comedic Films and the five Best Dramatic Films and, while we’re at it, the five Best Ensemble Films (because actors need hugs too.) Oh, yeah, and another instrumental category that's been sadly overlooked? Best Film Critic**. Because the little guy would look great on my mantle.
